Business Monitor International's Brazil Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's metals industry.

Brazil's crude steel production in November 2009 hinted at things to come in 2010. Output reached 2.68mn tonnes, up by 15% on the same month in 2008 to show a y-o-y increase in total production. Demand from Argentina, Taiwan and India produced a surge in Brazilian flat rolled steel products in September 2009. Exports of the products hit US$234mn, 79% up on the same month in 2008. Buoyed by the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games, the country's steel association IBS optimistically forecasts a return to 2008 production levels in 2010. IBS expects crude steel production to reach 33.1mn tonnes and consumption to reach 22.9mn tonnes in 2010. The association also sees exports strengthening by 16% up to 11mn tonnes in 2010, compared with 9.5mn tonnes in 2009. Total production in the 11 months to November 2009 was 25% down on 2008, however, reaching 23.93mn tonnes. BMI is more pessimistic in its forecasts and does not expect total crude production to reach pre-recession levels until 2011, with exports only returning to pre-crisis volumes of around 12mn tonnes in 2012.

Brazil remains well-placed compared to its North American and European counterparts when it comes to recovery in the metals markets, which is reflected by the investment attitudes of companies active in the country. Much of ArcelorMittals upstream acquisitions in 2010 are expected to focus on Brazil as the metals giant continues to secure iron ore supply by vertical integration, committing itself to a US$5bn greenfield project and three capacity upgrades in the country in Q409. Vale and Gerdau made similar moves in the quarter, with the latter refocusing its growth strategy on Brazil. BMI forecasts exponential increases in crude production beyond 2011 as a result, reaching 48.26mn tonnes in 2014. BMI expects demand to dwarf pre-crisis levels in 2014, increasing to as much as 48.95mn tonnes.

Contractions in the aluminium market have not been as strong as in steel in 2009. Total output of primary aluminium for the 11 months to November 2009 reached 14.07mn tonnes, 7.6% down on the previous year. Some see more near- to medium-term promise in aluminium than in steel. In December 2009, Alcoa inaugurated its expanded Alumar refinery expansion outside Sau Luis in northern Brazil. Alcoa invested US$1bn in the expansion, which more than doubled capacity at the alumina refinery from 1.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) to 3.6mn tpa. The Brazilian Aluminium Association (ABAL) expects total primary output to reach 1.54mn tonnes in 2009, just 7.2% weaker than 2008.

Key Topics Covered:

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Global Metals Market Overview
• Table: Worlds Top 10 Steel Producing Countries, 2007 And 2008
• Aluminium Outlook
• Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast
• Table: Aluminium Indicators Historical Data and Forecasts
• Copper Outlook
• Metals Price Outlook
• Table: Stock Levels At London Metal Exchange Warehouses (tonnes)
• Global Mining Outlook
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Competitive Landscape
• Steel
• Table: Output Of Brazilian Steel Producers, 2006 And 2007 (000 tonnes)
• Aluminium
• Table: Brazilian Aluminium Smelters
• Company Profiles
• Global Assumptions
• Country Snapshot: Brazil Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
• Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
• Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
• Section 2: Education And Healthcare
• Table: Education, 2000-2003
• Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
• Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
• Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
• Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
• Table: Average Annual Wages, 1996-2002

Companies Mentioned:

• ArcelorMittal
• Gerdau SA
• Vale
• Alcoa
• Companhia Siderrgica Nacional (CSN)
• Usiminas

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/460777/brazil_metals_repo